5 Evangelical Trends for 2014

In keeping with end of the year predictions, here are mine. Of course, several years ago I predicted $5 per gallon gas. Thankfully, we never got to that point. But in light of my obvious fallibility I’m framing my prognostications in the familiar “what’s in and what’s out” categories. Here’s what I think (and hope) are in and out for 2014:

1. Out: Celebrity Christians. In: Communities that model love for God and others.

More articles and blog posts appeared in 2013 lamenting the culture of “celebrity” that has infected the evangelical world. Celebrity Christians include people who are already celebrities, like Paula Deen and the Duck Commander, but celebrity Christians also include regular guys and gals who are clawing their way to the top of the bestseller list and the next big conference. Christian book publishers love the celebrity culture, but the rest of us are beginning to feel a little used.

In for 2014 are faith communities that model love for God and others. These communities are multiplying in American Christian culture, and have great appeal to everyone’s target group, Millennials. Beyond their attractiveness, communities like Grace and Main in Danville, Virginia are replacing celebrity with service and fame with friendship. Watch for more like them in 2014.

2. Out: Big evangelical conferences. In: Small local peer groups.

Apparently there are about 75 major evangelical conferences each year. Most of these target pastors, and obviously no pastor can attend all or even most of these conferences. The big conference model is coming to an end, just like the big electronic conventions of years past. Time and cost will be major factors in their decline. Also, if celebrity Christians are out, conferences which feature celebrity Christians will also fade away.

In for 2014 are small local peer group conversations. Book discussions over lunch, peer-to-peer support, and contextual problem-solving will grow in importance in 2014.

3. Out: Coaching.  In: Spiritual direction.

Coaching has reached critical mass in the church world. Anyone can be a coach, and unlike in the sports world, church and pastoral coaches aren’t graded on the success of their coaching. Coaching is a metaphor borrowed from the sports world that is losing currency in the church world.

Spiritual direction, on the other hand, is a traditional and appropriate helping ministry in the Christian community. Spiritual direction focuses on spiritual disciplines and insights such as discernment, guidance, insight, wisdom, vocation, and mission. The growth of spiritual practices such as lectio divina, the daily office, and the use of prayer books portend the rise of the ministry spiritual direction in 2014.

4. Out: Major Christian publishers. In: self-publishing for local ministry.

With a few notable exceptions, major Christian publishers continue to churn out pop books from celebrity authors. The costs, distribution, marketing and mass audience targeting of Christian publishing results in fewer authors with higher profiles (“celebrities,” see Item 1).

However, self-publishing platforms like Amazon provide free access to the author who has something to say, but has a limited audience. More self-published books will be available in 2014, and more of these will be written for a specific congregation or community. Mass marketing, in other words, is out, and contextual publishing is in.

5. Out: Preaching for “life change.”  In: Pastoral care.

Rick Warren popularized “preaching for life change,” which most pastors interpreted as preaching topical sermons on practical subjects like parenting, finances, and marriage. But not everyone is as good as Rick Warren at this type of preaching, and it easily degenerates into telling people how to live.

Pastoral care in sermon and practice, however, walks with individuals and families through all of the significant passages of life, and life’s unexpected difficulties, too. This “alongside” preaching and practice ministers to people in their life experiences, and encourages them to find God’s presence in moments of joy and sadness.

Those are the trends I see for the coming year.  Of course, there are negative trends that we in churches will have to deal with, too. I’ll leave those to others, and wish you a Happy New Year!

6 Dramatic Trends Churches Are Ignoring

Despite the adoption of coffee bars, powerpoint presentations, and full-stage lighting, churches are seldom on the cutting edge when it comes to addressing demographic trends.  Here are six dramatic trends that are not being addressed adequately by local churches, church networks, or denominations.

If we continue to ignore these trends for another decade, churches will continue to see an erosion of members, attendance, and relevance in a rapidly changing American culture.

Gleaned from “Six Disruptive Demographic Trends: What Census 2010 Will Reveal” published by The Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise at the University of North Carolina, these trends will impact churches as well as the U.S. economy.

1. The South has several new faces.

“…between 2000 and 2008, the South was the preferred destination for movers in nearly all of the major demographic groups, including blacks, Hispanics, the elderly, and the foreign born.”

While the Northeast and Midwest grew by 6.5 and 9.4 percent respectively, the South attracted over half (51.4%) of the 24.8 million increase in the United States population. The West garnered about one-third of the total U.S. growth, but was an net exporter of 2 out of the 4 groups mentioned.

Of course, the South isn’t called the Bible belt for nothing, but established churches in the South tend to be single race churches, white and black, with few examples of churches designed to address the issue of the South’s growing multiculturalism. Mark de Ymaz in Arkansas is doing it, and Soong-Chan Rah writes about it, but at the local church ministry level few are addressing this multicultural growth trend.

2.  The minority majority is coming.

In the 1980s when I first visited Fuller Seminary’s campus in Pasadena, I was told that there was no majority group in Pasadena – everyone was a minority. That trend is now a growing reality across America. The UNC report calls it the “browning of America,” which is a phrase I don’t like because it pits white against “browns,” and if not carefully stated becomes a pejorative description of those not-white.

But the fact remains that non-white population growth is outstripping white growth dramatically. Between 2000 and 2009, Asians increased by 31 percent; blacks by 10 percent; and, Hispanics by 36 percent, while non-Hispanic whites increased by only 2 percent. Immigration patterns and birth rates are the primary drivers of this coming minority majority. By 2050, the non-Hispanic white population will fall below 50 percent for the first time in our nation’s history. No group will be the majority population, and that holds both great challenge and great promise for churches in the next 40 years.

3.  Out-marriage is in.

Same gender marriage has grabbed the headlines, but cross-ethnic marriages are the quiet growing reality.

“Among newly married couples, the out-marriage rate was 14.6 percent in 2008, up from 6.7 percent in 1980,” according to the UNC report. In addition, those marrying outside their ethnic group tend to be more, not less, educated.

Churches in our community (rural, Southern Virginia) tend not to have interracial couples, although there are many in our community. As this out-marriage trend grows, churches will need to become more conscious and sensitive to these ethnically-blended families. Church literature and advertising will need to run images of cross-ethnic couples and families in order to indicate a church’s welcome to these blended marriages.

4. The baby boomers aren’t babies anymore.

“On January 1, 2011, the first baby boomer born in America turned 65 and set into motion what we refer to as the “silver tsunami.” Almost 80-million baby boomers will leave the U. S. workforce in the next 20 years.

Churches already skew older than the national population average, and this will only become more pronounced in the next two decades. Seeker-sensitive churches that sprang up to attract baby boomers in the 1980s will be impacted by the aging of this group.

While churches almost always want to attract young families, by default and intention there will be churches that focus primarily on senior adults. Senior adult ministry for and with older adults will not just be a sub-group of larger congregations. Entire churches will be senior-led, benefitting from the years of experience, education, skills, and resources this group possesses.

5. It’s no longer a man’s world.

According to the report, men “bore 80 percent of total U. S. job loss between 2007 and 2009” leading some to proclaim the “end of men” in the economic market. Out of ten college graduates over the past decade, 6 were women and 4 were men. Women own 40 percent of all U.S. businesses, and women hold 43 percent of all executive, administrative, and managerial positions in the U.S. economy.

“Women are close to surpassing men as the numerical majority in the paid U.S. workforce.” In addition, in “married couple households, women now account for 47 percent of household income”, and 63.3 percent of mothers were the primary or co-breadwinner, up from 27.7 percent in 1967.

The implication for churches is obvious in several areas. Ministries to men and women need to recognize these new workplace realities. Ozzie and Harriett are dead, and churches need to deal with gender issues like it was 2012, not 1952.

6. Grandparents are the new parents.

“In 2010, 4.9 million American children lived in grandparent-headed households.” This is an increase of 26 percent versus a 4 percent increase for children living in all other type households.

Increasingly, these grandparent-led households also include one or more adult children who are parents of the grandchildren. And, 40 percent of children were living in home headed by a grandmother only.

This increasing family-type challenges the traditional church idea of what it means to be a family, and provides opportunity for churches to meet the unique needs of grandparent-led households. That these households tend to be non-white and economically-stressed provides additional challenges for church ministry.

Each one of these trends challenges the traditional church’s idea of its community, its membership, its inclusivity, and its understanding of gender and race issues. Small churches will face unique challenges, but also unique opportunities in addressing these trends.

However, if denominations, churches, and church networks continue to ignore these society-shaping developments, we will miss the great opportunities for growth, outreach, and church revitalization in the 21^st century.

The future is here and it’s mobile

I got tired of lugging my laptop to meetings, so I got a Blackberry before I went to NOC2008 in San Diego.  Of course, when I got there, everyone I saw had an iPhone or a BB, so I’m not exactly on the cutting edge here, but I’m still impressed.  I had no idea you could do almost everything on a mobile device, which brings me to the point — take the quantum leap and make everything you do mobile.   Here’s what I mean:

1. Redesign your blog.  I realized that I had to scroll down the left column of my blog on my BB before I got to the middle column where my posts are.  I’m rethinking my blog design and hope to find a more mobile-friendly design.  But, I actually posted to the blog from my mobile.  
2. Redesign your website.  Same problems as above, only more so.  Mobile delivery is how most people will get their content soon (Asia already does this), so your site needs to display well on mobile devices. 
3. Blog on Twitter.  I hadn’t realized the value of Twitter until I got a BB.  Very convenient, to the point, and fast. Look for more bloggers to go this way (okay, I know they’re already going this way — check Ed Stetzer, for example.) Twitter also posts to Facebook — two birds with one stone.
4. Chunk-up your content.  Shorter is better on mobiles, I’ve discovered.  Chunk-up content into bite-sized pieces.  Forget the 3,000 word posts.
5. Checkout the apps stores for mobile devices.  Lots of good apps including searchable Bibles, ebooks, weather, news updates, and tons more.  You’re no longer tethered to the lappy or the desktop.

Okay, some of you are way ahead of me on this.  How are you using your smartphones in ministry?  What apps have you downloaded and how do you use them?  Is anyone out there all mobile all the time?

Zogby: Small, real churches are the future

Today I bought pollster John Zogby’s new book, The Way We’ll Be, subtitled, The Zogby Report on The Transformation of the American Dream. Called a “super pollster” because he uses innovative methodologies in his polling work, Zogby sees a very different future for the US than you might imagine.  Here’s what he says about the future of the church:

“The church of the future will be a bungalow on Maple Street, not a megastructure in a sea of parking spaces.  It’s intimacy of experience people long for, not production values.” — The Way We’ll Be, p. 215.

In a previous chapter, “One True Thing,”  Zogby says that people are “searching for authenticity in a make-believe world.” That’s what will drive the tremendous growth of house churches in the coming years, especially among the demographic he calls ‘First Globals” which others label Millenials.   Zogby quotes one house church enthusiast, “What is so exciting about doing small-group house church is just the chance to be real.”  Authenticity, not high production values, is what First Globals are seeking.

If you want an excellent book to give you a professional pollster’s take on where we’re headed as a nation, especially in understanding First Globals (Millenials), buy Zogby’s book.  If you’ve read unChristian or They Like Jesus But Not the Church, you need to read this book, too.  Add to your reading Strauss and Howe’s books on Millenials such as Generations, The Fourth Turning, and Millenials and the Pop Culture, and you’ll be well on your way to understanding developing trends in our society.

Techno Tues: Think your TV is big? and other stuff…

 At CES in Las Vegas today, Panasonic showed off their 150″ plasma TV — just in time for the Super Bowl!  But, before you rush out to Circuit City, apparently there’s only one right now.  Here are some more fascinating tidbits:

1. Girls blog, boys watch YouTube according to PSFK’s summary of Pew Research’s study on the media habits of families.  Implications for youth ministry?
2. For those into live blogging conferences, Kevin Kelly has a link to a free article for newbie or wannabe live conference bloggers.
3. Want a free 1500+ page, beautifully illustrated physics book?  Here.
4. Quote from Seth Godin’s post about the music industry —

7. Remember the Bob Dylan rule: it’s not just a record, it’s a movement.
Bob and his handlers have a long track record of finding movements. Anti-war movements, sure, but also rock movies, the Grateful Dead, SACDs, Christian rock and Apple fanboys. What Bob has done (and I think he’s done it sincerely, not as a calculated maneuver) is seek out groups that want to be connected and he works to become the connecting the point.

By being open to choices of format, to points of view, to moments in time, Bob Dylan never said, “I make vinyl records that cost money to listen to.” He understands at some level that music is often the soundtrack for something else.

I think the same thing can be true for chefs and churches and charities and politicians and makers of medical devices. People pay a premium for a story, every time.

 Now, if only we had a good story…..

From my blogline

I added a new feature to the right sidebar — clips from my blogline that I find interesting.  Click the post title to go directly to the original post on the original blog.  You’ll find stuff about trends, culture, church, resources, and mostly things I like.  Hope you enjoy and find it helpful.  — Chuck

The future of creativity is here — watch this

This is the future and it is now.  Thanks to Larry Lessig’s blog for the link.

Friday free-for-all: Lots of trends from lots of places

Now that I’ve solved some technical challenges, like getting my blog aggreagator going at chuckwarnock.com, I’m back to snipping trends that have church implications — here are the latest that caught my attention —

• Pangea Day — a day when film brings the world together to solve problems. You can sign up to host the event live (all you need is an internet connection and digital projector and popcorn).  I signed up our soon-to-be-finished community center. 
• Primordial soup — Evolution continues evolving….check out today’s post from TED re this issue which is ever with us. 
• Pop-up stores — this idea keeps coming!  I posted about this on Amicus Dei earlier, but here’s another example.  Anybody doing pop-up church?
• The people we have been waiting for — Read Thomas Friedman’s (The World Is Flat) article in the NY Times about how college kids are building a 200-mpg car and they’re doing it now!  Non-expert entrepreneurship, collaboration, and global problem solving all at once.  Click thru and go to the actual site for some really cool photos and info. 

Okay, that’s enough for today.  Stay tuned for more!

Five trends changing the way we live

You have got to see this slideshow from PSFK, a trend watching company out of the UK. They nail some of the emerging trends in the consumer world, which has big implications for church.  Piers Fawkes identifies these five trends changing the consumer world:

1. Good food.  Healthier, fewer ingredients, natural, easy, and fun.
2. Craft.  Reusing, recycling, reclaiming, reducing, and redesigning everything from clothes to furniture to art to you-name-it.  Handmade is in, machine-made is out.
3. Pro-service, anti-product.  Do you need an explanation here?
4. Local.  Buy local, eat local, have fun locally.  Locavore is the hot new word — one who eats locally raised food. 
5. Taking control.  Ditto #3. 

(Click here to go to Slideshare, then click full screen for best viewing.)

My writing life reorganized

I write three blogs, and now four.  “How does he find the time?” you might ask.  Doesn’t actually take that much time because these are things I’d be interested in even if I didn’t write about them.  For me blogs are a way to organize my thoughts and reading.  But I am trying to focus the content of each, as follows:

• Confessions of A Small-Church Pastor:  Issues, ideas, and inspiration for the under-300 attendance church.  New posts on pastoral care, leadership, and the weekly Big Idea are in the works.  Watch for new features for 2008!
• Amicus Dei:  The focus is on friendship with God in a community of faith.  Spirituality, stories of the journey, peace and justice themes, and some book reviews, all from a missional point of view. 
• Chuck Warnock: Sermons, etc:  My sermon texts and podcasts based on the Christian Year and the Revised Common Lectionary. 
• NEW!! FutureChurchNow:  Today’s trends and how they affect tomorrow’s church.  Posts weekly with feed of interesting trend articles for your own browsing.  I’m not predicting trends, just reporting with some comment on the implications for doing church. 

Thanks for your support whether you’re a reader of all or one of my blogs.  Some new stuff is in the works for 2008 and I hope you’ll be part of it!  Peace.