Watching the economy while tending the flock

On November 21, I posted If gas hits $4/gal, what will your church do? Comments indicated some thought it was not going to be a problem, others were keeping a close eye on economic developments. This week 5 economic items of interest all converged:

1. Low consumer confidence. According to government economists, if consumers spend less, then fewer goods are purchased, fewer manufactured, more jobs lost, and unemployment rises. Consumer confidence hit a 5-year low this reporting period.
2. Rising gas prices. Oil routinely closes above $100/barrel now. $4 per gallon gas is predicted for this spring. Consumers will likely conserve by making fewer trips, and church might be one of the places less traveled to.
3. The subprime mortgage crisis. Note that banks, mortgage holders, and investment banks are writing down billions of dollars in bad loans. Most economists believe this is far from over, with lots of foreclosures, tight credit, and more banks in trouble.
4. Weak dollar. I don’t understand a lot about economics, but I get this one from my international travels. When you enter a foreign country, you exchange your good ole US dollars for local currency. A weaker dollar “buys” less foreign currency, therefore you have less money to spend. Other implications also exist, particularly in our national debt, but those aren’t good either.
5. Recession talk. It’s out there — the R-word. Recession is being talked about for all the reasons I mention above, and then some.

What does this mean for churches? Churches that practice good stewardship will have fewer problems. Churches that have borrowed to fund building expansion or other projects might face some difficulty. I believe we are in a period of economic uncertainty, and churches would be wise to watch the economic indicators all around them.

Our church is in an area that is undergoing tremendous economic change, and it does affect churches here. Lost jobs, lost wages translate into fewer contributions, plus families move to take jobs in other communities. So, churches can lose not just money, but members, too. What do you see happening in your community? Are your members discussing economics? Are companies in your area hiring or laying off? What steps is your church taking, if any, to weather an economic slowdown?

If gas hits $4/gal, what will your church do?

CNN reports that crude oil prices hit $99/barrel yesterday and are headed to $100/barrel and up.  Gas is already past $3-a-gallon in much of the US.  A gasoline transporter told me that people appear to be conserving more.   So even at $3 a gallon the price is having an effect.  What if gas goes to $4-a-gallon?  I think then we’ll see a serious reordering of our lives and schedules.  If you have not thought about how higher gas prices might affect your church, you need to.  Some implications are —

• Fewer but longer gatherings to pack more content into one trip to church.
• Decentralized meetings in homes that draw folks from the neighborhood.
• Reimagining the weekly flow of church activities in both small and large churches.
• Re-evaluation of staff responsibilities if there are fewer “come to the church” meetings.
• Impact on budgets.  Higher gas prices mean not only higher costs to fill your members’ tanks, but higher costs for all goods and services. 
• Emerging churches might already be blazing a trail for others in their flow of activities. 

Higher gas prices are coming.  You might want to begin to shift gears now.  Or at least think about it.  Have a great Thanksgiving!