The church of the future resides in an urban setting, consists of multiple minorities, and espouses progressive social values, according to two recently-released reports.
While most church futurists have focused on church models (i.e., house churches vs. megachurches) in their predictions of the shape of church in the next 50-years, the demographic forces shaping future churches are at work now on a global scale. The report of the Population Reference Bureau, which published its comprehensive “World Population Data Sheet” findings in October, 2009; and the Center for American Progress’s “New Progressive America: The Millennial Generation” report contain valuable insights for church thinkers.
Here are some of the findings of the World Population Data Sheet:
1. The world’s population will reach 7-billion by 2011 or 2012. By 2050 10-billion people will occupy an increasingly crowded planet. We are adding approximately 1-billion people every 12-years.
2. By 2050, 90% of Americans will live in urban areas.
3. Most of the population growth in the US will come from immigrants already in the US, or those who will migrate to the US. The US population in 2050 will stand at 439-million, up 135-million from the 304-million today — an increase of almost 50%.
4. By 2050, India will lead the world population with almost 2-billion; China will have 1.4-billion people; and, the US will be the third most populous country in the world with 439-million.
5. No majority ethnicities will exist by 2050 in the United States.
6. In the 20th century, 90% of population growth came from less-developed countries. In the 21st century, virtually all global population growth will come from less-developed countries, with some more-developed country populations actually declining, or being bolstered by increased immigration.
Soong-Chan Rah’s new book, The Next Evangelicalism, points out that while church proponents decry the decline of the American church, it’s the white American church that is decline, while ethnic congregations are flourishing. Subtitled “Freeing the Church From Western Cultural Captivity” Rah advocates a multi-cultural, multi-ethnic church whose seeds are already beginning to bear fruit. In other words, the shift that will be realized 40-years from today has already begun in our society. But, because the dominant culture in American society is the white European culture, church scholars are culturally blind to the rise of minority, urban, and ethnic churches.
The report by the Center for American Progress gives additional credibility to the changing nature of the church. The Millennials, born 1978-2004, are an increasing force in American life and politics. The Millennial cohort will dwarf the size of the Baby Boomer generation, while actually bringing about changes in society that the Boomers abandoned after they matured. Sixty-four percent of Millennials agreed that “religious faith should focus more on promoting tolerance, social justice, and peace in society, and less on opposing abortion or gay rights.” Just 19 percent disagreed.
The culture wars of the 1980s and 1990s are quickly fading, and a new generation that is more progressive in social views is assuming center stage. Millennials were a major force in the election of Barack Obama in 2008, and by 2020 will comprise 40% of the entire American electorate.
Of course, world events such as the economy, war, natural disasters, and a host of other events could intervene and reshape the future that is evident now. However, the trend toward multi-culturalism, urbanism, and changing social ideas upon us. It remains to be seen exactly how these trends will influence and shape the church of the future.
October 14, 2009 • 11:10 pm 2
Paying Attention to the Outrageous
The media pounce on their pronouncements as though the words they uttered were the first like them. Bloggers and political sites pick up the refrain — “How dare they invoke the name of Hitler!” The outrage is palpable, and then the next day it starts all over again.
Frankly, I’m tired of it. I’m tired of pop media personalities cheapening the tragedy of the Holocaust with their self-serving tirades. If this is what passes for discourse and dialogue in America, we are at a new low.
But I also tell myself we must be on the cusp of change because so many are so afraid right now. In times of turbulent change, the dividers voices are often the loudest. It was that way during the Civil Rights struggle, it was that way during the Viet Nam war protests, and it’s that way again.
But I also know that the nascent signs of change in churches are encouraging. Multi-ethnic congregations are blossoming, and new expressions of church are springing up in unlikely places. Multi-culturalism is becoming almost as popular a topic among church conference planners as multi-site strategies. More and more congregations are moving out into their communities, connecting with new groups of people who are helped, and who in turn change the helpers. Just as some courageous churches led the way in seeking justice for African-Americans, and later in seeking peace, these churches are the bellwether for change in our society.
That’s what we should be paying attention to — this new consciousness that I have not seen before in so many churches. A consciousness of need, but of more than need. An awareness of our responsibility as followers of Jesus to make a difference in the lives of people around us. Next week I’m speaking to Duke Divinity School students about rural church ministry. I’m going to talk about this new thing I see happening because it is unprecedented.
Examples emerge in unlikely places. A church heals its community by planting a community garden in the wake of a local murder. Another church reaches out to bikers and blue collar workers, not just for worship, but to help create jobs for them. Churches feed people now in towns where before that need went unmet. Kids are given school supplies, and encouraged to come after school for tutoring to an urban church that provides a safe haven until their working-class parents get home.
Change must be on the way because the voices of fear are growing louder and more shrill each day. That’s the reason I pay attention to the outrageous statements of those publicity seekers. I pay attention because I believe their outrageous statements carry with them a harbinger of hope, an indicator of impending change. Let’s hope so, and let’s find a place to bring about that change.
Filed under: Global issues, Missional Church, bless the world, culture, ethics, service, trends , change, churches, commentators, hope, justice, media, name-calling, outrage, peace